Root-mean-square deviation

Gives the typical size of the difference between predicted values and observed values as a single number in the same units as the data. It is used to measure how accurate a forecast or model fit is, with smaller values meaning better agreement.

\mathrm{RMSD}=\sqrt{\frac{\sum_{t=1}^{T}(\hat{y}_t-y_t)^2}{T}}

What the symbols mean

root-mean-square deviation, in the same units as the data
number of observations or time points
index of the observation, running from 1 to T
predicted or estimated value at time t
observed (actual) value at time t

About this formula

  • FieldStatistics
  • TopicForecasting and model evaluation
  • LevelUniversity
  • Also calledRMSE, root-mean-square error, RMSD formula, root mean square error formula, RMSE formula, forecast error measure
  • SourceWikidata Q29037

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